<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Aaron Lipeles]]></title><description><![CDATA[Essays on technology, data, and AI — and why the systems we build so often misrepresent the world they're meant to describe.]]></description><link>https://www.lipeles.com</link><image><url>https://www.lipeles.com/img/substack.png</url><title>Aaron Lipeles</title><link>https://www.lipeles.com</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Sat, 01 Aug 2026 21:04:32 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.lipeles.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Aaron Lipeles]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[aaronlipeles@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[aaronlipeles@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Aaron Lipeles]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Aaron Lipeles]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[aaronlipeles@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[aaronlipeles@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Aaron Lipeles]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[UCCs Don’t Prevent Double Pledging ]]></title><description><![CDATA[** Originally published on LinkedIn]]></description><link>https://www.lipeles.com/p/uccs-dont-prevent-double-pledging</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.lipeles.com/p/uccs-dont-prevent-double-pledging</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Aaron Lipeles]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 27 Jul 2026 16:30:21 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0gX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6c5023-d0ea-4263-940b-0cf3ee8202dc_1279x720.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0gX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6c5023-d0ea-4263-940b-0cf3ee8202dc_1279x720.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0gX!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6c5023-d0ea-4263-940b-0cf3ee8202dc_1279x720.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0gX!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6c5023-d0ea-4263-940b-0cf3ee8202dc_1279x720.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0gX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6c5023-d0ea-4263-940b-0cf3ee8202dc_1279x720.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0gX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6c5023-d0ea-4263-940b-0cf3ee8202dc_1279x720.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0gX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6c5023-d0ea-4263-940b-0cf3ee8202dc_1279x720.png" width="1279" height="720" 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y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>** Originally published on LinkedIn</p><p>In response to recent warehouse lending frauds, I&#8217;ve repeatedly seen versions of: &#8220;This is what UCCs are for.&#8221;</p><p>That misunderstands what UCCs actually do.</p><p>UCCs are primarily legal protection, not operational protection.</p><p>A UCC filing perfects a lender&#8217;s security interest in collateral. &#8220;Perfect&#8221; is legal terminology meaning that the lender has taken the legal steps necessary to establish and protect its claim relative to other creditors.</p><p>It does not verify:</p><ul><li><p>that the collateral exists</p></li><li><p>that the borrower actually owns it</p></li><li><p>that it hasn&#8217;t already been pledged elsewhere</p></li><li><p>or that the records describing the collateral are accurate.</p></li></ul><p>A rough analogy is a mortgage when buying a home.</p><p>Recording your mortgage protects your legal claim to the house. But lenders still perform exhaustive title searches because the filing itself is not enough if someone else already has a superior claim.</p><p>Warehouse lending is much harder because the collateral is not a single house with a clean title history.</p><p>The collateral is usually a dynamic pool of loans:</p><ul><li><p>loans are originated</p></li><li><p>loans pay off</p></li><li><p>loans default</p></li><li><p>loans are sold</p></li><li><p>loans move between facilities</p></li></ul><p>And unlike real estate, there is no canonical registry tracking all of this.</p><p>This is the key misunderstanding around double-pledging fraud and UCCs.</p><p>The issue is generally not conflicting UCC filings against the same pool, though that is also possible.</p><p>The issue is determining what loans were actually inside each pool at a particular moment in time.</p><p>If the same loan is improperly pledged into multiple warehouse facilities, the dispute may ultimately hinge on:</p><ul><li><p>which facility validly obtained rights in the loan first</p></li><li><p>whether the loan was properly released from another facility</p></li><li><p>whether the borrower even had the ability to pledge it again</p></li></ul><p>And this is where the system becomes fragile.</p><p>The legal claim often depends on reconstructing pool contents from borrower-maintained records that may themselves be operationally unsophisticated. In some cases, the system of record is ultimately a set of spreadsheets used to manage collateral tapes and periodic reporting that may be:</p><ul><li><p>incomplete</p></li><li><p>inconsistent</p></li><li><p>delayed</p></li><li><p>inaccurate</p></li><li><p>or fraudulent</p></li></ul><p>UCCs help establish legal priority once a claim is identified.</p><p>But in warehouse lending, the hardest problem is often not determining who has first claim to an asset.</p><p>It is determining what assets were actually pledged in the first place.</p><p>This is ultimately an infrastructure problem as much as a legal one.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Quality Isn’t Enough ]]></title><description><![CDATA[** Originally published on LinkedIn]]></description><link>https://www.lipeles.com/p/quality-isnt-enough</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.lipeles.com/p/quality-isnt-enough</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Aaron Lipeles]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 23 Jul 2026 13:00:54 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>** Originally published on LinkedIn</p><p><br>I figure that I know as much as the average person about how cars work. I can tell you what a cam shaft is, what spark plugs do, and why the carburetor is a relic. But still, I&#8217;m at the complete mercy of auto mechanics. If the mechanic tells me that the alternator needs to be replaced and, a week later, tells me that it has been replaced, I can&#8217;t open the hood and evaluate the work. I don&#8217;t know whether right component has been installed, whether any bolts were replaced and tightened correctly, whether the work was adequately checked and tested, or even what questions I should be asking.</p><p>Effectively, I can only make useful judgments about the work product of mechanics in the case of gross failures. To me, all basically competent mechanics are qualitatively equivalent.</p><p><strong>Clients judge the service level, when they can&#8217;t judge the service</strong></p><p>What I can and do evaluate, though, is the quality of service that mechanics provide. Does the mechanic clearly explain to me the problem and its remediation? Do the final charges match the original estimate? Is the work done on schedule or predictably late? Is the mechanic attentive or did he or she make me wait on hold or stand around in the garage while attending to other matters?</p><p>Naturally, I&#8217;m inclined to believe that a mechanic who is transparent, reliable, and detail-focused where I can see is more likely diligent where I can&#8217;t. As the tractable aspect of the interaction, customer service becomes a proxy for judging overall value.</p><p>The moral for mechanics, and the rest of us, is that client experience matters tremendously. <em>Adequate work backed by great customer service can be better than great work plus mediocre customer service.</em></p><p><strong>Focus on your client&#8217;s values. Know when they&#8217;re different from yours.</strong></p><p>The key to great service is to focus on what&#8217;s important to the client. And, clients often value different aspects of the experience than the people they hire to do work for them. Experts and technicians naturally value deep expertise, attention to detail, and elegance, all of which are good values. But, they&#8217;re not necessarily the client&#8217;s primary focus.</p><p>Imagine you are building an iPhone app for a client. You decide that it would be a good idea to build in the flexibility to deliver the app on Android later. So, you take the initiative to use a framework that supports multiple platforms, which requires 3 extra days of work.</p><p>You may proudly declare that you spent an extra 3 days at no charge to ensure that the client has the option to use Android in the future. But, the client may only hear, &#8220;Your app will be 3 days late.&#8221; The fact that you went above and beyond will be lost because the client perceives no difference in the outcome. Focused on what you value, future-proofing, you miss what the client values more, time to market.</p><p>Don&#8217;t take this as an argument to cut corners and take advantage. Just remember that it&#8217;s your job to stay in alignment with the client. Surprise delays are always unwelcome and the explanations we make for them, even when valid, get heavily discounted.</p><p><strong>Identify with the mechanic and think like the client</strong></p><p>Here&#8217;s a good test of the value of some aspect of customer service: How much would the service affect (or not) your choice of an auto mechanic?</p><p>As professionals, we are all in the mechanic&#8217;s position. By the nature of specialization, professionals at anything have a better understanding of the work that they do than their clients. Yet, we have imperfect access to understanding what the client values.</p><p>From our privileged, yet also disadvantaged, position relative to the customer, we can do two things to put the customer at ease:</p><p>One, reduce the information gap by making reasonable efforts to explain neutrally to the client the work that is being done and why. Include a basic analysis of trade offs, cost drivers, and risks. A better understanding of the work will help a client to evaluate quality objectively and rely less on soft indicators.</p><p>And two, focus on the perspective of the client in order to deliver a great experience. Specifically try to exclude what you know about the quality of your product or service that, because of experience or information disparity, may not be accessible to the client.</p><p>It&#8217;s easy to fall into the trap of trying to convince the client of a truth that she or he cannot see. The success of such efforts will depend on your credibility with client, i.e. on subjective judgements. Frequently, they are attempted precisely because credibility has been damaged and bear the weight of apparent conflict of interest. Think of a mechanic trying, after the work is done, to explain the necessity of replacing an expensive component.</p><p>Better, focus early on how a client will reasonably assess your contribution and provide relevant and appropriate tools.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Market Financial Solutions Losses Reveal a Technology and Incentives Failure]]></title><description><![CDATA[** Originally published on LinkedIn]]></description><link>https://www.lipeles.com/p/the-market-financial-solutions-losses</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.lipeles.com/p/the-market-financial-solutions-losses</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Aaron Lipeles]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 23 Jul 2026 13:00:50 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySw3!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F95fb3468-ef84-4967-88be-a4de0771233a_1279x720.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySw3!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F95fb3468-ef84-4967-88be-a4de0771233a_1279x720.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySw3!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F95fb3468-ef84-4967-88be-a4de0771233a_1279x720.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySw3!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F95fb3468-ef84-4967-88be-a4de0771233a_1279x720.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySw3!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F95fb3468-ef84-4967-88be-a4de0771233a_1279x720.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySw3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F95fb3468-ef84-4967-88be-a4de0771233a_1279x720.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySw3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F95fb3468-ef84-4967-88be-a4de0771233a_1279x720.png" width="1279" height="720" 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https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySw3!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F95fb3468-ef84-4967-88be-a4de0771233a_1279x720.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySw3!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F95fb3468-ef84-4967-88be-a4de0771233a_1279x720.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySw3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F95fb3468-ef84-4967-88be-a4de0771233a_1279x720.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>** Originally published on LinkedIn </p><p>Modern credit markets have built sophisticated risk models on top of surprisingly weak collateral controls.</p><p>The discussion around Market Financial Solutions (MFS) has focused largely on the borrower. But the more interesting question may be about the systems surrounding the loans.</p><p>I&#8217;ve spent most of my career working on structured finance analytics and asset-based lending infrastructure.</p><p>From that perspective, the recent situation involving<span> </span><strong>Market Financial Solutions (MFS)</strong><span> </span>raises a familiar question: how could something like this happen?</p><p>A homeowner cannot take out two mortgages on the same house without lenders discovering it. Yet according to public reporting, MFS &#8212; which Reuters described as &#8220;a little-known UK mortgage provider&#8221; &#8212; appears to have pledged billions of dollars of loans across multiple financing facilities.</p><p>To prevent homeowner fraud, title searches, lien registries, closing agents, and custodians exist specifically to prevent double-pledging. The mortgage market has built infrastructure that makes financing the same house twice extremely difficult.</p><p>Yet in parts of modern credit markets, the infrastructure surrounding collateral is surprisingly weak.</p><p><strong>The infrastructure needed to prevent this is not particularly complicated.</strong></p><p>A modern collateral framework would include stable loan identifiers that are independent of the originator&#8217;s internal systems, a shared digital registry recording when loans are pledged and to whom, and machine-readable reporting that allows lenders to reconcile collateral continuously rather than through periodic spreadsheet updates.</p><p>Capital markets built comparable systems decades ago for securities &#8212; CUSIPs, clearing systems, trade repositories.<span> </span><strong>For loans, the equivalent infrastructure largely never appeared.</strong></p><p>But technology is only part of the story.</p><p>The incentive structure around warehouse lending often reinforces the status quo. Warehouse facilities are originated by individuals whose performance is measured by deal volume, margins, and client relationships. Additional infrastructure &#8212; registries, reconciliation systems, independent verification &#8212; introduces cost and friction.</p><p><strong>The same people who say they want zero risk often resist anything that slows a deal or reduces its profitability.</strong></p><p>What makes this notable is that other parts of credit markets have already solved much of this problem.</p><p>In U.S. residential mortgages, the protections extend well beyond individual lending. The warehouse and securitization infrastructure surrounding those loans includes multiple independent checks. County lien records establish the mortgage claim on the property. Custodians verify that the loan note and related documents exist and are properly endorsed. Servicers and trustees maintain loan-level records and reconcile balances regularly. Systems such as MERS track servicing and beneficial ownership across much of the market.</p><p>The process is far from perfectly digitized, but the combination of registries, custodianship, and standardized reporting makes sustained double-pledging difficult.</p><p>Outside that ecosystem, the pattern looks different &#8212; and familiar.<span> </span><strong>As widely reported in the financial press</strong>, variations of the same problem have appeared repeatedly:<span> </span><strong>Greensill</strong>,<span> </span><strong>First Brands</strong>, commodity-finance failures such as<span> </span><strong>Hin Leong</strong><span> </span>&#8212; where reports indicated that collateral was sometimes pledged multiple times and in some cases did not exist at all &#8212; and now<span> </span><strong>MFS</strong>.</p><p>Each episode exposes the same weakness: lenders ultimately depend on the borrower&#8217;s own systems to track collateral. Each time losses occur, the industry revisits the same discussion about infrastructure. And each time the market largely returns to the same practices.</p><p>It might seem surprising that the risk functions within these institutions do not stop transactions that rely on borrower-reported collateral. In practice, those functions are structured differently. Credit risk teams focus on the financial characteristics of the deal &#8212; loan-to-value ratios, borrower solvency, expected loss under stress scenarios &#8212; using the numbers provided by the originator.</p><p>The question of whether the collateral exists exactly as reported often falls into the category of operational or fraud risk. Operational risk groups, where they exist, are often smaller, focused primarily on internal controls, or not specialized enough in the underlying asset classes to challenge the structure of the collateral itself. Independent due diligence firms are often engaged to review loan files and underwriting quality, but those reviews typically rely on lender-provided data as well.</p><p><strong>Loan tapes arrive as spreadsheets. Borrowing-base calculations are built directly on those tapes. Verification tends to be periodic rather than continuous.</strong></p><p>The easiest way for a deal to move forward is to rely on borrower reporting and established<span> </span><strong>market</strong><span> </span>conventions.</p><p>None of this means that participants are unaware of the systemic risks. The industry has seen them before. Within individual transactions, people are generally following accepted practices.</p><p>But the cumulative effect is a system where known weaknesses persist because addressing them requires collective investment that individual deals have little incentive to bear.</p><p>The phrase often used in finance is<span> </span><strong>&#8220;trust, but verify.&#8221;</strong></p><p>In several parts of modern credit markets, the trust remains strong. The verification infrastructure has not evolved at the same pace.</p><p>As private credit and warehouse lending continue to expand, the technology required to track collateral reliably already exists.</p><p><strong>What has been missing are the incentives to build and adopt it.</strong></p><p><em>Much of the reporting referenced here comes from coverage in Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, and other financial press.</em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[When the Data Is Right and the Truth Is Still Missing]]></title><description><![CDATA[Most organizations invest heavily in data quality. Far fewer ask whether their data models actually represent the business.]]></description><link>https://www.lipeles.com/p/when-the-data-is-right-and-the-truth</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.lipeles.com/p/when-the-data-is-right-and-the-truth</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Aaron Lipeles]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:02:48 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some of the most sophisticated data environments I have ever worked in belong to large financial institutions. Two of them, the two largest Swiss banks, stand out because both organizations invested seriously and successfully in data governance, with documented lineage, validated values, and audit trails that would satisfy any regulator. They had genuinely achieved a level of operational data quality that is aspirational for many organizations.</p><p>And yet they were no better positioned than those aspirational organizations when tackling significant analytical efforts. Those projects required something that no amount of quality and governance investment could provide: a working knowledge of how the data had been constructed, what edge cases the models had silently absorbed, and which institutional practices were encoded not in any system but in the heads of the people who had been there long enough to know. Deriving an accurate picture of what was actually happening in the business required extensive enrichment, careful transformation, and a kind of expert interpretation that felt more like archaeology than analysis.</p><p>For a long time I assumed this reflected a governance gap, that more documentation, better metadata, and stronger standards would close it. The more I worked through these environments, though, the more a different diagnosis emerged: the underlying models were not faithfully representing their domains, and all the governance in the world could not compensate for that.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Data quality vs. representational adequacy</h2><p>Data quality, as the field usually defines it, concerns the accuracy and reliability of individual values: whether a field is populated, whether a number is correct, whether a record reconciles to another. Representational adequacy is a different kind of question. It asks whether the model, the collection of tables, fields, and relationships that defines what gets stored, actually captures the structure of the business reality it is meant to describe. A system can achieve impeccable data quality by every conventional measure and still fall well short of this.</p><p>The clearest way to see this is through an example. A trading system records each trade as a single record, and among the fields it captures is the salesperson who originated the deal. This is a natural and useful thing to store, and for years it works exactly as intended. Then the business evolves: salespeople begin collaborating on larger transactions and splitting the commissions, and the practical solution is to book two trade records rather than one, crediting each salesperson individually. Each record is accurate. The salesperson is correctly identified, the commission correctly calculated, and an auditor reviewing either record would find nothing to question.</p><p>What has quietly broken is the model&#8217;s correspondence with the underlying reality. A trade record now serves two purposes simultaneously: it is both a record of a transaction and a unit of compensation credit. Anyone who later wants to count transactions with a given counterparty, or analyze trading volume in a particular product, will find numbers they cannot trust without first knowing this history and working around it manually. No individual value is wrong, but the model has been stretched past the point where it reliably represents what it was built to represent.</p><div><hr></div><h2>When the transaction disappears</h2><p>A structurally more complex version of this problem appeared at one of those Swiss banks in the treatment of repurchase agreements, or repos. A repo is a short-term financing transaction in which one party sells securities (typically government bonds) to another, with a simultaneous agreement to repurchase them on a specified future date at a slightly higher price. The difference between the sale price and the repurchase price is effectively interest, and the securities serve as collateral for what is, in economic substance, a short-term loan.</p><p>The bank&#8217;s system recorded repos as two separate trades: the initial sale and the forward repurchase. Both legs were captured faithfully and accurately. But the system held no representation of the repo itself as a unified transaction. There was no link between the two legs, no encoding of the agreed repurchase price as a rate of return, and no concept of a collateral relationship connecting them. To calculate the implied interest rate on any given repo, an analyst had to know to locate both legs and perform the arithmetic manually. To track whether collateral had been substituted during the life of the transaction, which is a common event in active repo books, required institutional knowledge of how substitutions would have been recorded, because the system had no model of substitution at all. The individual values were accurate in every respect, but the repo itself, as a coherent object with a term, a rate, and a collateral relationship, had no place in the system.</p><p>What these two examples have in common is that competent people made reasonable decisions. Recording two trades for a split commission is a pragmatic solution to a genuine business need. Recording both legs of a repo is technically accurate as far as it goes. The failure in each case is more subtle, and harder to catch in the moment: neither approach considered whether the model, as extended, would continue to correspond to the underlying reality it was meant to describe. The commission-split convention turned trade records into something else, and the two-legged repo recording preserved all the arithmetic while discarding the transaction itself.</p><p>Representational adequacy, as I have come to understand it, is the quality of that correspondence. A representationally adequate model captures the entities that actually matter in the domain, along with the relationships and events that define their behavior. Where the business has exceptions or non-standard processes that arise regularly enough to matter, it models those explicitly rather than absorbing them through workarounds that gradually obscure the underlying structure. Its absence rarely triggers a data quality alert, because the individual values are accurate and lineage holds up under scrutiny; the problem surfaces only when someone tries to answer a question the model was never designed to support.</p><div><hr></div><h2>This doesn&#8217;t fix itself downstream</h2><p>The practical urgency is that representational problems do not get easier to address once data has entered the warehouse. There is a reasonable intuition that these issues can be resolved during the transformation process &#8212; what practitioners call the bronze-to-silver stage, where raw ingested data gets cleaned, standardized, and aligned. And transformations can do a great deal: inconsistent formats, naming conflicts, identifier mismatches are all addressable there.</p><p>What they cannot do is reconstruct meaning that was never recorded. If split-commission trades enter the raw layer as independent records with no indication that they belong together, there is no transformation that can recover the connection without someone encoding the institutional knowledge that these records represent a single transaction. If repos arrive as two unlinked trade legs, any downstream analysis that depends on treating them as a single instrument must carry that reconstruction logic forward indefinitely, updated as the business changes and explained to every new team member who inherits the pipeline. The transformation layer gradually accumulates business rules that should have lived in the source system, and the burden of interpretation compounds quietly over time.</p><p>This is why the representational work has to happen before data enters the warehouse &#8212; not necessarily by overhauling the system of record, which is often impractical, but by ensuring that whatever feeds the warehouse correctly represents the domain. Sometimes that means a tactical reconstruction: a purpose-built feed that merges split-commission records into unified trades, or links repo legs into single transaction objects with their associated terms and rates. It is unglamorous work, and it lives upstream of where most data teams focus their energy. Without it, every layer built above inherits the same interpretive burden.</p><div><hr></div><p>What strikes me, looking across the organizations I have worked with, is that neither of these failures is unusual. The commission-split problem and the two-legged repo are instances of patterns that appear, in different forms, across industries and systems of every kind. Once you know what to look for, you start seeing them. And once you see them, you find yourself asking different questions &#8212; not just whether the data is accurate, but whether the model behind it actually represents the thing you are trying to understand. That shift in framing is, I think, where the more durable fixes begin.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Is one of the more surprising innovations in agentic AI actually a step backward?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Agentic AI is quietly rediscovering the monolith, and with it a paradox: the plainest system cedes the most autonomy.]]></description><link>https://www.lipeles.com/p/is-one-of-the-more-surprising-innovations</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.lipeles.com/p/is-one-of-the-more-surprising-innovations</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Aaron Lipeles]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2026 13:04:05 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QNE5!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a3ca252-1609-467f-8685-70933c4fbee9_2720x2240.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is a lively debate about how to build AI agents, the software systems that pursue a goal over many steps on their own, and much of the energy has gone toward more. More agents, each with a specialty, wired together through elaborate frameworks.</p><p>So it is worth noticing that some capable practitioners are quietly moving the other way, toward something a software engineer is trained to distrust.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.lipeles.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>They are building a monolith.</p><p>Even the broader move toward harnesses, the scaffolding wrapped around a model to keep it on task, leans this way, back toward one thing rather than many. One approach in this spirit wears its modesty in its name. It is called a Ralph Loop, after Ralph Wiggum, the sweet and hapless child from The Simpsons, and its method is to repeat one small thing over and over, keeping almost nothing in its head and writing everything down instead. The idea comes from <a href="https://ghuntley.com/">Geoffrey Huntley</a>, a well regarded engineer and writer.</p><p>His starting point is a limitation anyone who works with these systems will recognize. When agents converse, the record of that conversation grows, and every new instruction carries the whole history along. Today&#8217;s models can technically hold an enormous amount at once, often around a million words, but they do not hold it well. As the pile grows, the model gets duller, less careful, more prone to losing the thread. The parallel to ourselves is hard to resist. We too can keep a great deal in mind, and yet the quality of our work slips when we juggle too much. Like us, these models do their best when asked to attend to one small thing at a time.</p><p>The approach is disarmingly ordinary. You describe what you want, sketch a rough plan, and then ask the model to take the next step, whatever it judges that step to be. You test the result, update the plan, and do it again. Each round begins fresh, with the work so far, the original description, and the current plan, but not the accumulated transcript of every earlier exchange. The context never swells, and so it never has the chance to rot.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QNE5!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a3ca252-1609-467f-8685-70933c4fbee9_2720x2240.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QNE5!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a3ca252-1609-467f-8685-70933c4fbee9_2720x2240.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QNE5!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a3ca252-1609-467f-8685-70933c4fbee9_2720x2240.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QNE5!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a3ca252-1609-467f-8685-70933c4fbee9_2720x2240.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QNE5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a3ca252-1609-467f-8685-70933c4fbee9_2720x2240.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QNE5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a3ca252-1609-467f-8685-70933c4fbee9_2720x2240.png" width="1456" height="1199" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4a3ca252-1609-467f-8685-70933c4fbee9_2720x2240.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1199,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:371955,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.lipeles.com/i/204516577?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a3ca252-1609-467f-8685-70933c4fbee9_2720x2240.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QNE5!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a3ca252-1609-467f-8685-70933c4fbee9_2720x2240.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QNE5!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a3ca252-1609-467f-8685-70933c4fbee9_2720x2240.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QNE5!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a3ca252-1609-467f-8685-70933c4fbee9_2720x2240.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QNE5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a3ca252-1609-467f-8685-70933c4fbee9_2720x2240.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>A Ralph Loop runs until, by its own reckoning, the job is done, though an operator can add limits on time or spending. It is genuinely autonomous, choosing each task and how to carry it out, and the mechanism is so slight it fits in ten or twenty lines of ordinary Python, with no frameworks at all.</p><p>Which points to something worth holding onto. The most autonomy you can hand to anyone, a team, an employee, or an AI process, is to say simply, this is what I want, and leave the how to them. An elaborate agent system can look like the freer arrangement, full of independent actors each making its own choices. But defining those agents and choreographing how they talk is itself a set of instructions about how the work should be done. The Ralph Loop, for all its plainness, cedes more. It prescribes almost nothing and points everything at the goal.</p><p>Its value is not really in question. But that is not the same as saying everything should be goal and nothing else. Where safety, risk, and regulation are at stake, giving a system specific guidance on how to proceed is not a failure of nerve. Sometimes it is the wiser choice.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.lipeles.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>